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1.
Math Biosci Eng ; 21(2): 2835-2855, 2024 Jan 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38454709

RESUMEN

Epidemiologists have used the timing of the peak of an epidemic to guide public health interventions. By determining the expected peak time, they can allocate resources effectively and implement measures such as quarantine, vaccination, and treatment at the right time to mitigate the spread of the disease. The peak time also provides valuable information for those modeling the spread of the epidemic and making predictions about its future trajectory. In this study, we analyze the time needed for an epidemic to reach its peak by presenting a straightforward analytical expression. Utilizing two epidemiological models, the first is a generalized $ SEIR $ model with two classes of latent individuals, while the second incorporates a continuous age structure for latent infections. We confirm the conjecture that the peak occurs at approximately $ T\sim(\ln N)/\lambda $, where $ N $ is the population size and $ \lambda $ is the largest eigenvalue of the linearized system in the first model or the unique positive root of the characteristic equation in the second model. Our analytical results are compared to numerical solutions and shown to be in good agreement.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias , Humanos , Cuarentena , Salud Pública , Densidad de Población
2.
Math Biosci Eng ; 20(12): 20683-20711, 2023 Nov 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38124571

RESUMEN

We propose an epidemiological model for the interaction of either two viruses or viral strains with cross-immunity, where the individuals infected by the first virus cannot be infected by the second one, and without cross-immunity, where a secondary infection can occur. The model incorporates distributed recovery and death rates and consists of integro-differential equations governing the dynamics of susceptible, infectious, recovered, and dead compartments. Assuming that the recovery and death rates are uniformly distributed in time throughout the duration of the diseases, we can simplify the model to a conventional ordinary differential equation (ODE) model. Another limiting case arises if the recovery and death rates are approximated by the delta-function, thereby resulting in a new point-wise delay model that incorporates two time delays corresponding to the durations of the diseases. We establish the positiveness of solutions for the distributed delay models and determine the basic reproduction number and an estimate for the final size of the epidemic for the delay model. According to the results of the numerical simulations, both strains can coexist in the population if the disease transmission rates for them are close to each other. If the difference between them is sufficiently large, then one of the strains dominates and eliminates the other one.


Asunto(s)
Coinfección , Enfermedades Transmisibles , Epidemias , Humanos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Coinfección/epidemiología , Número Básico de Reproducción
3.
J Med Case Rep ; 12(1): 165, 2018 Jun 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29895322

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: A stroke in a baby is uncommon, recent studies suggested that their incidence is rising. Moyamoya disease is one of the leading causes of stroke in babies. This condition is mostly described in Japan. In Morocco, moyamoya disease has rarely been reported and a few cases were published. We report a rare Moroccan case of a 23-month-old baby boy who presented with left-sided hemiparesis and was diagnosed as having moyamoya disease. CASE PRESENTATION: A 23-month-old full-term Moroccan baby boy born to a non-consanguineous couple was referred to our hospital with the complaint of sudden onset left-sided hemiparesis. On neurological examination, there were no signs of meningeal irritation, his gait was hemiplegic, tone was decreased over left side, power was 2/5 over left upper and lower limb, and deep tendon reflexes were exaggerated. Preliminary neuroimaging suggested an arterial ischemic process. Clinical and laboratory evaluation excluded hematologic, metabolic, and vasculitic causes. Cerebral angiography confirmed the diagnosis of moyamoya disease. Our patient was treated with acetylsalicylic acid 5 mg/kg per day and referred to follow-up with pediatric neurosurgeon. Cerebral revascularization surgery using encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis was performed. At 8-month follow-up, his hemiparesis had improved and no further ischemic events had occurred. CONCLUSION: This case highlights the importance of considering moyamoya disease to be one of the classic etiologies of acute ischemic strokes in children from North Africa. It also emphasizes the rare presentation among the African population and the use of neurovascular imaging techniques to facilitate diagnosis of moyamoya disease.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Moyamoya/diagnóstico , Accidente Cerebrovascular/etiología , Angiografía Cerebral , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Marruecos , Enfermedad de Moyamoya/complicaciones , Enfermedad de Moyamoya/tratamiento farmacológico , Paresia/etiología , Accidente Cerebrovascular/diagnóstico
4.
Am J Emerg Med ; 36(4): 733.e1-733.e2, 2018 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29306651

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Adrenal insufficiency (AI) is a rare endocrine disorder, which can in its acute form be life-threatening in case of late diagnosis or treatment. The stress during a thermal burn can easily decompensate the AI. We report the case of an acute adrenal insufficiency (AAI) discovered following a refractory collapse occurred after a severe thermal burn. CASE PRESENTATION: A 60-year-old woman was accidentally burned to the lower limbs by hot water. Total burn surface area was 36 %. The patient had local care and dressings, vascular filling, and analgesics. Four hours later, she became dyspneic, and presented tachycardia associated with collapse at 60/40mmHg. Suspecting a hypovolemic origin, we performed a solid fluid replacement with colloids. However, hemodynamic stability was not achieved and motivated a continuous injection of norepinephrine. Despite high doses, immediate evolution was marked by a persistent precarious hemodynamic state. AAI was suspected, and a substitutive hormonotherapy was started. The clinical condition progressively improved and catecholamines were quickly stopped. CONCLUSION: AAI is a vital emergency. The large burn is a possible cause of the AI decompensation. This diagnosis must be kept in mind when the hemodynamic status remains unstable despite an adequate vascular treatment.


Asunto(s)
Insuficiencia Suprarrenal/diagnóstico , Insuficiencia Suprarrenal/etiología , Quemaduras/complicaciones , Choque/complicaciones , Insuficiencia Suprarrenal/tratamiento farmacológico , Quemaduras/fisiopatología , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Femenino , Hemodinámica , Humanos , Hidrocortisona/uso terapéutico , Persona de Mediana Edad , Norepinefrina/uso terapéutico , Choque/fisiopatología , Vasoconstrictores/uso terapéutico
5.
Pan Afr Med J ; 27: 156, 2017.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28904684

RESUMEN

The awake brain surgery is an innovative approach in the treatment of tumors in the functional areas of the brain. There are various anesthetic techniques for awake craniotomy (AC), including asleep-awake-asleep technique, monitored anesthesia care, and the recent introduced awake-awake-awake method. We describe our first experience with anesthetic management for awake craniotomy, which was a combination of these techniques with scalp nerve block, and propofol/rémifentanil target controlled infusion. A 28-year-oldmale underwent an awake craniotomy for brain glioma resection. The scalp nerve block was performed and a low sedative state was maintained until removal of bone flap. During brain glioma resection, the patient awake state was maintained without any complications. Once, the tumorectomy was completed, the level of anesthesia was deepened and a laryngeal mask airway was inserted. A well psychological preparation, a reasonable choice of anesthetic techniques and agents, and continuous team communication were some of the key challenges for successful outcome in our patient.


Asunto(s)
Anestésicos/administración & dosificación , Neoplasias Encefálicas/cirugía , Craneotomía/métodos , Glioma/cirugía , Adulto , Neoplasias Encefálicas/patología , Glioma/patología , Hospitales Militares , Humanos , Máscaras Laríngeas , Masculino , Marruecos , Bloqueo Nervioso/métodos , Piperidinas/administración & dosificación , Remifentanilo , Vigilia
7.
Pan Afr Med J ; 26: 146, 2017.
Artículo en Francés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28533869

RESUMEN

Inflammatory fibroid polyp (IFP) is a rare benign lesion, originating from the submucosa in the gastrointestinal tract. It generally appears as an isolated benign lesion, rarely located at the level of the ileum. Its origin is controversial. Clinical presentation varies depending on its location; invagination and obstruction are the most common indicative symptoms when the polyp is located at the level of the small intestine. We report the case of a 22-year old patient with abdominal pain, nausea and vomiting and a personal history of intermittent constipation and a weight loss during the previous year. Radiological imaging objectified ileo-ileal invagination completely obstructing the ileum light. Segmental resection of the obstructed ileal segment and termino-terminal anastomosis were performed. The final diagnosis of IFP was established using histological examination and immunohistochemical investigation.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades del Íleon/diagnóstico , Inflamación/diagnóstico , Obstrucción Intestinal/diagnóstico , Pólipos Intestinales/diagnóstico , Dolor Abdominal/etiología , Humanos , Enfermedades del Íleon/patología , Enfermedades del Íleon/cirugía , Íleon/patología , Inflamación/patología , Inflamación/cirugía , Obstrucción Intestinal/etiología , Obstrucción Intestinal/cirugía , Pólipos Intestinales/complicaciones , Pólipos Intestinales/cirugía , Masculino , Náusea/etiología , Síndrome , Vómitos/etiología , Adulto Joven
8.
Indian J Crit Care Med ; 21(3): 127-130, 2017 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28400682

RESUMEN

CONTEXT: Adverse events (AEs) are a persistent and an important reason for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. They lead to death, disability at the time of discharge, unplanned ICU admission (UIA), and prolonged hospital stay. They impose large financial costs on health-care systems. AIMS: This study aimed to determine the incidence, patient characteristics, type, preventability, and outcome of UIA following elective surgical AE. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: This is a single-center prospective study. METHODS: Analysis of 15,372 elective surgical procedures was performed. We defined UIA as an ICU admission that was not anticipated preoperatively but was due to an AE occurring within 5 days after elective surgery. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Descriptive analysis using SPSS software version 18 was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: There were 75 UIA (0.48%) recorded during the 2-year study period. The average age of patients was 54.64 ± 18.02 years. There was no sex predominance, and the majority of our patients had an American Society of Anesthesiologist classes 1 and 2. Nearly 29% of the UIA occurred after abdominal surgery and 22% after a trauma surgery. Regarding the causes of UIA, we observed that 44 UIA (58.7%) were related to surgical AE, 24 (32%) to anesthetic AE, and 7 (9.3%) to postoperative AE caused by care defects. Twenty-three UIA were judged as potentially preventable (30.7%). UIA was associated with negative outcomes, including increased use of ICU-specific interventions and high mortality rate (20%). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis of UIA is a quality control exercise that helps identify high-risk patient groups and patterns of anesthesia or surgical care requiring improvement.

9.
Ann Gastroenterol ; 29(4): 530-535, 2016.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27708522

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a technique used both for diagnosis and for the treatment of biliary and pancreatic diseases. ERCP has some anesthetic implications and specific complications. The primary outcome aim was to compare two protocols in terms of time of extubation. We also compared anesthetic protocols in terms of hemodynamic and respiratory instability, antispasmodics needs, endoscopist satisfaction, and recovery room stay. METHODS: Patients were randomized into two groups standard anesthesia group (Gr: SA) in whom induction was done by propofol, fentanyl and cisatracurium and maintenance was done by a mixture of oxygen, nitrousoxide (50%:50%) and sevoflurane; and intravenous anesthesia group to target concentration (Gr: TCI) in whom induction and maintenance of anesthesia were done with propofol with a target 0.5-2 µg/mL, and remifentanil with a target of 0.75-2 ng/mL. RESULTS: 90 patients were included. Extubation time was shorter in Gr: TCI, 15±2.6 vs. 27.4±7.1 min in Gr: SA (P<0.001). The incidence of hypotension was higher in GrL: SA (P=0.009). Satisfaction was better in Gr: TCI (P=0.003). Antispasmodic need was higher in Gr: SA (P=0.023). Six patients in Gr: SA group had desaturation in post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) versus one patient from Gr: TCI (P=0.049). Patients in Gr: TCI had shorter PACU stay 40.2±7.3 vs. 58.7±12.4 min (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The use of TCI mode allows better optimization of general anesthesia technique during ERCP.

10.
Pan Afr Med J ; 24: 129, 2016.
Artículo en Francés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27642467

RESUMEN

Many neurosurgical procedures involve the use of a pin-type headrest to immobilize the patient's head. We report the case of depressed skull fracture in an adult patient secondary to the use of Mayfield headrest. The diagnosis was based on postoperative CT scan of the brain following surgical resection of medulloblastoma. Several factors seem to increase the risk of complications due to Mayfield headrest use. Preventive measures are outlined in our literature review.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias Cerebelosas/cirugía , Meduloblastoma/cirugía , Fractura Craneal Deprimida/etiología , Adolescente , Diseño de Equipo , Humanos , Inmovilización/efectos adversos , Inmovilización/instrumentación , Masculino , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/diagnóstico por imagen , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/etiología , Fractura Craneal Deprimida/diagnóstico por imagen , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X
12.
J Med Case Rep ; 10(1): 187, 2016 Jun 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27342645

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Parotid surgery is a common ear, nose, and throat procedure. Facial nerve paralysis is the main feared complication following this surgery. To avoid this paralysis, intraoperative facial nerve monitoring is often used, but neuromuscular blocking agents interfere with this technique. Therefore, the neuromuscular blocking agent used should have a short duration of muscle relaxation. With the discovery of sugammadex, a steroidal neuromuscular blocking agent has acquired the potential to be used in place of succinylcholine. CASE PRESENTATION: A 41-year-old African woman was scheduled for a parotidectomy at our hospital. Rocuronium-induced neuromuscular block was reversed intraoperatively with sugammadex to facilitate identification of facial nerve function. The facial nerve was identified without incident, and surgical conditions were good for the removal of the tumor. During postoperative follow-up, no evidence of residual paralysis has been noted. CONCLUSIONS: In parotid surgery, the use of sugammadex allows free use of a steroidal neuromuscular blocking agent for intubation and thus intraoperative facial nerve monitoring can be done safely.


Asunto(s)
Traumatismos del Nervio Facial/prevención & control , Nervio Facial/fisiología , Monitorización Neurofisiológica Intraoperatoria/métodos , Fármacos Neuromusculares no Despolarizantes/administración & dosificación , Glándula Parótida/patología , Neoplasias de la Parótida/cirugía , gamma-Ciclodextrinas/administración & dosificación , Adulto , Androstanoles/administración & dosificación , Femenino , Humanos , Bloqueo Neuromuscular/efectos adversos , Neoplasias de la Parótida/patología , Rocuronio , Sugammadex
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